Five Ways to Invest in the Financial Crisis
With the current climate on Wall Street, the idea of putting your money anywhere but in a shoebox may, understandably, leave you a little circumspect. But let’s be honest, shoeboxes are highly vulnerable to liquidity (as in actual liquids) and their rate of returns are currently only slightly better than those of America’s financial institutions. We all need better, less cardboard places to put our money but how should one proceed in this bearishest of markets?
First, be prepared to wait it out. This goes to all you Graham-loving value investors out there. It doesn’t matter how strong a company’s balance sheet is, seeing returns on what you believe is an undervalued security requires a market-driven price correction, which in turn requires at least a modicum of investor confidence. In this market, even modicums seem like risky plays.
Second, put your shorts on. Companies vulnerable to the effects of the mortgage collapse will see steady declines for months or years. They can talk about restructuring all they want, but it’s going to take some time to get this straightened out. There has never been a better winter for a bear to skip his hibernation.
Third, be willing to think for five seconds about what a company actually does. “Wow!” you might say, “Brunswick (BC) looks like a great bargain!” While on paper that may be true, I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that cruising yachts and air-hockey tables may have somewhat sluggish sales for the next 47 fiscal quarters.
Conventional stock wisdom says “don’t try to catch a falling knife,” which is fine advice when there are other options for things to catch, but in today’s market it’s more a case of “try to catch whichever falling knife is least sharp, then put a bandaid around your bloody hand and wait it out until that nasty gash has healed”. Here are some knives that may be worth catching, let’s hope at least one of them is partially blunted.
1. Long on Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) Believe it or not, people will continue to require the use of banks for years to come. I know this seems counterintuitive to the massive panic gripping the country, but unless you happen to be the world’s richest duck (requiring assets sufficiently liquid for swimming) you will need a bank in which to keep your money. Wells Fargo and Bank of America have been relatively unscathed by the financial crisis due to their conservative lending policies. They also are in the unique position of being able to buy-up many of the country’s decimated financial institutions for pennies on the dollar. Now, don’t go expecting 30% returns in the next two years, but once this storm has passed you can be sure Wells and B of A will be standing strong.
2. Short on American Airlines (AMR), United Airlines (UAUA), and Delta Airlines (DAL) Oil prices, while easing slightly, are still expensive enough to slay the airlines every time their jets need refueling. What’s more, I wouldn’t bet on many people hopping planes to exotic locales any time soon. The three biggest US airlines will have a difficult time grappling with drastically decreased demand for leisure travel, not to mention increasing competition from discount airlines JetBlue, Southwest, and Virgin America. Honestly, who’s going to travel when their net worth is in the toilet?
3. Long on Procter & Gamble Company (PG), Wal-Mart (WMT), and McDonald’s (MCD) No matter how bad the economy gets, there are certain things people will continue to require in their daily lives. These include diapers, clothing, toothpaste, and food. Proctor and Gamble makes most of the things that populate your bathroom cabinets, and if you have a baby there’s a good chance she’s wearing Pampers. Wal-Mart is the world’s largest retailer and, while retail spending is most certainly going to decline, if there’s one thing people won’t be needing it’s black turtleneck sweaters or expensive neutral-toned chinos; Wal-Mart and similar low-cost retailers will keep people clothed and fed without breaking the bank. And if that’s not enough to convince, the company’s same-store sales for last month actually beat expectations. McDonald’s, on the other hand, ALSO saw same store sales grow dramatically in October. Eating organic is well and good, but it looks like, in the end, consumers would rather be fat with very little money, than sustainable and eco-conscious with no money.
4. Long on Brown-Forman (BF’B) and Church & Dwight Company (CHD) There are exactly two activities that Americans will continue to undertake regardless of political and economic instability: drinking and screwing. And when we don’t even have enough money to rent a movie, these pastimes become all the more central to our recreational regimes. Brown Forman is best known for its production of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey; if stocks stay in the gutter expect consumption of the sweet brown liquor to increase, particularly at the Bull and Bear and other bars throughout Manhattan. Church & Dwight are the owners of Trojan brand condoms, the unequivocal world leader in condom sales. If there is any time people will be more cautious about potential pregnancy, you can bet it’s when the checking account is close to empty.
5. Long on Guns and Oats No, not Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC), or Oat Futures, but actual guns and oats. With an economic catastrophe of this size there’s no telling how close we are to a Road Warrior scenario, so it never hurts to prepare for the worst. Get some land and some oats to feed you and yours, then make sure you’ve got a solid 12-gauge to keep the likes of Lord Humungous off your property.






Nice writing. You are on my RSS reader now so I can read more from you down the road.
Allen Taylor
Tell it, man.
Does the use of Brown-Forman products increase or decrease the use of Church & Dwight products? In other words, does the rising tide of whisky lift all boats in this space, or does it lead to reckless forgetfulness and point of sale problems on the condom front?
To what extent do you expect people to invest in ribs, or other commodities related to “her pleasure”?
Good writing and good advice. Do you have any advice
on taking advantage of any infrastructure investments by the Govt?
Buy and hold died this year. There is nothing to be patient and wait for. It is now a traders market that you have to be as willing to go short as you are willing to go long.
Great post!
@Brent
You raise a good point, however I posses not the data to perform a regression analysis on this sort of relationship. Perhaps this would be a question to pose to The Economist. Just make sure you begin with
“Sir-”
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@Peter
Good question, but at this point I’d say the wide-spread ramifications of the government’s infrastructure investments are anyone’s guess. If you’ve got some ideas I’d love to hear them, in the mean time I’m content to sit on the sidelines of those deals and see what happens.
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@Ray
Thanks for comments and glad you liked the article. Any other suggestions you’d add to the list?
Whatever! BoA is on the verge of asking for a bailout because of their Countrywide purchase.